Entry28.21→Now28.39
Fed hike supports dollar rebound. Open original source
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Top Calls
Entry28.36→Now28.39
Dollar index bid on higher short-term yields Open original source
Price change since each call, adjusted for long/short direction. Results calculated:
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13:20
Sep 18
Sep 18
Article warns debt monetization via gold revaluation could show up through 'a weaker dollar, higher inflation, rising nominal asset prices' and that dollars 'may buy a hell of a lot less.'
Article warns debt monetization via gold revaluation could show up through 'a weaker dollar, higher inflation, rising nominal asset prices' and that dollars 'may buy a hell of a lot less.'
Risk: If Treasury does not deploy the proceeds or the Fed aggressively offsets liquidity, the dollar could remain firm.
10:14
Sep 18
Sep 18
US growth outperformance supports dollar.
Lignos says the dollar is supported by the contrast between a relatively resilient US economy and a European economy that may slow in autumn. Fiscal-dominance fears and capital outflows from the US have not materialized in the data, so she focuses on relative growth performance, which favors the dollar.
MED
10:00
Sep 18
Sep 18
US dollar pressure remains upward.
Felix leans toward a higher US dollar because the dollar chart looks coiled, the US is advantaged in energy and AI, and big capital flows still favor the US. He notes that historical slowdowns often create upward dollar pressure rather than dollar weakness.
MED
19:46
Sep 17
Sep 17
DXY breakout needs follow-through confirmation.
The Fed was the catalyst for a sharp dollar reversal, with DXY breaking above 100 as the euro broke down. Patrick notes the dollar had not made a lower low at any point, but one day does not make a new bull trend and there is not yet enough follow-through to confirm a resumption of the dollar bull market. He calls this the single most interesting post-FOMC development to watch because a renewed dollar advance would have major implications for assets that had been anticipating a weak dollar.
MED
18:09
Sep 17
Sep 17
U.S. credibility underpins dollar reserve status.
The more important issue than marginally lower rates is the credibility of the United States: confidence underpins the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency and the depth and liquidity of U.S. Treasury markets. If that confidence is damaged, it would matter far more than a temporary day of lower rates.
MED
11:29
Sep 17
Sep 17
Dollar has more upside
The dollar has more upside because the hawkish Fed shift restores credibility and is not fully priced, with Treasury-market improvement likely coming through curve flattening.
HIGH
08:48
Sep 17
Sep 17
Strong US economy supports dollar.
A resilient US economy and the Fed's inflation fight should support the dollar, pressuring Asian currencies. The yen weakened and the Korean won sold off, while the Chinese yuan may be more stable because the PBoC is not easing.
MED
07:32
Sep 17
Sep 17
Hawkish Fed supports more dollar upside.
The FOMC was a hawkish shift that is not fully priced in yet, and the restoration of Fed credibility should support further dollar upside. The move is reinforced by upward pressure on front-end yields globally.
HIGH
21:04
Sep 16
Sep 16
Dollar faces pressure from policy shifts.
Canada and the EU becoming more competitive, plus a Fed hike that signals fiscal and monetary irresponsibility, should put pressure on the US dollar and could send it lower in a way not seen before.
MED
20:00
Sep 16
Sep 16
Dollar bearish now, DXY to 93-94.
He is bearish the dollar now because the business cycle is late, the Fed will eventually have to acknowledge the weak labor market, and a less hawkish Fed should send the dollar lower. He targets DXY around 93-94.
HIGH
18:38
Sep 16
Sep 16
Dollar index bid on higher short-term yields
The U.S. dollar index is getting a strong bid after the Fed decision and higher short-term rates, and this move makes sense after the dollar had been counterintuitive to many recent interest-rate moves.
MED
17:27
Sep 16
Sep 16
Prefer US dollar over Canadian dollar
In a world of escalating geopolitical tensions, especially Europe/Russia and Iran, capital flows to the US rather than Canada because the US market is deep enough to absorb it; he would personally choose US dollars over Canadian dollars.
HIGH
17:20
Sep 16
Sep 16
Cash good into hike; dollar should rise
The author argues cash is a genuinely good position into a probable rate hike, because higher rates should strengthen the dollar. The causal mechanism is that a hike raises relative USD yields, drawing capital into the dollar. The stated catalyst is the upcoming rate decision; no specific risk is given beyond the hike being only 'probable'.
MED
13:02
Sep 16
Sep 16
Short dollar; debasement accelerating.
He believes the dollar is heading lower, says the dollar is not a safe haven, and expects the debasement trade to accelerate in the next economic downturn; this supports local-currency EM debt and hard assets.
HIGH
07:51
Sep 16
Sep 16
Dollar bias remains upside after FOMC.
Asian risk appetite is constrained ahead of the Fed, but the US 10-year yield near 5% and its positive correlation with the dollar support the greenback; even if Fed Chair Kevin Warsh sounds dovish, the dollar's move is biased to the upside after the FOMC.
HIGH
22:19
Sep 15
Sep 15
Fed hike supports dollar rebound.
The dollar index is rising as the market prices in an almost certain Fed rate hike. If the Fed hikes, the recent weak-dollar/debasement trade should unwind and the dollar is likely to stay supported.
MED
18:45
Sep 15
Sep 15
Dollar weakness is being orchestrated.
Bessent is acting as the world’s biggest bond salesman and orchestrating swap lines and liquidity; Japan, Korea, China, and the US all want a weaker dollar, and a weaker dollar grows the world and helps bring liquidity back into risk assets.
HIGH
17:12
Sep 15
Sep 15
US dollar dominance remains intact.
Bessent argues the dollar's global role is strengthening: the share of global transactions in dollars rose this year, reserve declines come mostly from Russia and China reducing holdings, recent Treasury auctions show confidence, and US regulatory, tax, trade, and energy certainty is attracting trillions while stablecoins should further buttress the dollar.
HIGH
09:00
Sep 15
Sep 15
USD/KRW and DXY tops are near.
USD/KRW and the dollar index show bearish momentum divergence: prices are making higher highs, but MACD highs are lower. This suggests the upward move is losing power, and the pattern resembles prior turning points before sharp declines. He sees the peak nearby, though timing depends on rates, oil, and political factors.
MED
23:49
Sep 14
Sep 14
Author states 'DOLLAR NOT BREAK RESISTANCE,' implying the dollar's advance has stalled/failed at a technical ceiling — a bearish read for the greenback versus metals.
Author states 'DOLLAR NOT BREAK RESISTANCE,' implying the dollar's advance has stalled/failed at a technical ceiling — a bearish read for the greenback versus metals.
Risk: A hot inflation print or hawkish Fed repricing could push the dollar through resistance and invalidate the read quickly.
22:49
Sep 14
Sep 14
Government will print debt away, crashing the dollar
The author argues that because new bonds yield only 3.75% while older bonds yield 5%, buyers will avoid new issuance, and if the bond market goes haywire the government cannot roll over its debt. This forces a choice between raising rates until interest payments become the largest government spending item, or printing money to buy back bonds. The author concludes they will print the debt away and crash the dollar to oblivion, implying a short dollar position. Main risk is that the government instead raises rates and avoids monetization.
MED
21:06
Sep 14
Sep 14
Japan hikes favor Japanese securities, weaker dollar.
Japan is the key central-bank meeting to watch because if Japan raises rates while the Fed does not, Japanese securities become much more inviting to global investors, pulling money out of the U.S. That would send the dollar lower and push U.S. interest rates higher to try to keep up. This is a relative view favoring Japanese securities and pressuring the U.S. dollar.
MED
18:45
Sep 14
Sep 14
Dollar has topped; bearish dollar outlook.
Dan argues the Treasury Secretary's comments and intervention put a top in the dollar-yen and, by extension, the dollar against other currencies. He says the dollar has a very high negative correlation with gold and should be watched carefully, making this a bearish dollar macro call.
MED
18:21
Sep 14
Sep 14
Global investors are derisking from US assets.
Global investors and sovereign wealth funds are derisking from the US dollar and Treasuries due to the US weaponizing its currency, massive national debt, and unpredictable geopolitical coercion.
MED
03:11
Sep 14
Sep 14
Dollar stays weak as yields rise.
The dollar index cannot gain strength while long-term Treasury yields rise for structural debt and inflation reasons rather than strong growth; this reduces the appeal of dollar-denominated assets and reinforces the debasement trade.
MED
22:04
Sep 12
Sep 12
Dollar will collapse under its own weight.
The dollar is going to collapse under its own weight because of US fiscal and monetary problems. A weaker dollar is also part of what will strengthen the yen, and Fed money printing would destroy confidence in the dollar.
HIGH
21:00
Sep 12
Sep 12
Safe-haven basket: USD, Treasuries, gold, Bitcoin
A caixinha safe haven usa ativos com correlação negativa com a renda variável: dólar, títulos públicos americanos, ouro e Bitcoin. Dólar, Treasuries e ouro já são usados; o Bitcoin está em testes para achar a alocação ideal, com o objetivo de reduzir volatilidade e melhorar o Sharpe.
HIGH
23:30
Sep 11
Sep 11
Broad U.S. dollar weakness is likely.
The dollar index is at a critical long-term average and trend point after the Fed and BOJ meetings. The speaker expects broad dollar weakness, which would mean strength in the Korean won, Japanese yen, euro, and Chinese yuan, as the U.S. also wants lower long-term yields and tolerates yen strength to avoid Treasury selling pressure.
HIGH
20:37
Sep 11
Sep 11
Debt risk could weaken US dollar.
Haass argues the $40 trillion national debt is a national-security risk because if the world loses confidence in U.S. fiscal management, foreigners could move away from the dollar and stop financing the debt. That would force the U.S. to raise rates to attract capital, crowding out productive spending and undermining dollar confidence.
MED
18:43
Sep 11
Sep 11
Debt threatens dollar confidence and financing
The $40 trillion US national debt is a national security issue because global confidence in US economic management could erode, prompting foreign creditors to move away from the dollar and stop financing US debt. The US would then need to raise rates simply to attract financing, crowd out productive spending, and further weaken its economic and geopolitical position.
HIGH
About USD Investor Commentary
Across the available history and selected sources, Buzzberg tracks USD (US Dollar) across 108 sources: 341 bullish vs 401 bearish calls from 595 authors. Historical directional balance: -4% = 100 × (bullish − bearish) / all deduplicated idea records, including other directions. This is neither a probability of a price rise nor the share of bullish authors. 1364 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days, before deduplication: 10 bullish, 8 bearish, 7 other directions. Latest voices: Quoth the Raven, Elsa Lignos, Felix Jauvin.